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IMF: global growth expected at 3.0% in 2026 as inflation picks up

In its July 2026 update, the IMF projects global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, with global inflation revised up to 4.7% this year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its World Economic Outlook Update in July 2026. It projects global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, broadly unchanged on a cumulative basis from its April forecasts.

The IMF notes that the global economy weathered the war-related shock better than initially feared. However, the disinflation that began in early 2024 has stalled: global headline inflation is revised up to 4.7% in 2026, while the core inflation forecast is broadly unchanged.

The IMF publishes its next full Outlook in October 2026; the figures above are those of the July update.

Global growth projected by the IMF (July 2026)
2026
3.0%
2027
3.4%

Source: IMF — World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026

Key figures

IndicatorValueReference period
Projected global growth3.0%2026
Projected global growth3.4%2027
Global headline inflation4.7%2026 (revised up)

Outlook, limits and risks

These projections pre-date the October 2026 Outlook and may have been revised since. The IMF flags inflation persistence and developments in the conflict among the main risks.

Source

Original summary written from the sources cited. It is neither investment advice nor an offer. Figures and forecasts belong to their authors and may be revised.

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