World trade 2026: a slowdown expected, with artificial intelligence lending support

Overall trend

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the volume of world merchandise trade grew by 4.6% in 2025. In its baseline scenario published on 19 March 2026, it would grow by only 1.9% in 2026, before 2.6% in 2027. Services trade would slow less: 4.8% in 2026 after 5.3% in 2025.

The engine: AI-related goods

The value of trade in AI-related goods rose from USD 3.43 trillion to USD 4.18 trillion between 2024 and 2025 (+21.9%). These goods make up about one-sixth of world trade and explained 42% of its growth in 2025.

Regions

In 2026, merchandise imports are expected to grow fastest in Asia (3.3%) and Africa (3.2%), ahead of South America (2.5%), Europe (1.3%) and North America (0.3%). On the export side, Asia and South America are expected at 3.5%, Africa at 1.2%.

The picture in the autumn

The Goods Trade Barometer published on 9 September 2026 stands at 102.0, above its baseline of 100: trade is holding up, driven by electronics, while container shipping (99.6) is lagging.

Logistics and commodities

The WTO highlights the disruption of trade corridors: about one-third of global fertiliser exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which weighs on agriculture in importing countries.